It's Finally Legal - 5 Prediction Market Forecasts

by Bill McClellan on Dec 4, 2014 8:00:00 PM

PredictItMarket-347619-editedBack in 2013 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) banned INTRADE the Dublin-based “prediction market”.  At the time, it was basically the only market predicting political outcomes.  Insiders here in DC and all the reporters hated to see it go.

Well now prediction markets are roaring back and everything has been blessed as legal so far.  PredicIt is the new platform everyone has started using to make bets.      

Here are 5 predictions from it that caught my eye:

1. Participants are betting that Hilary Clinton has a 75% chance of winning the 2016 election for President.

2. It's over for Senator Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. 99% think she will lose the Senate election.

3. The chances Congress will shut down the government are low this year only reaching 25%.

4. Only 8% think that the House will vote to impeach President Obama. So if you hear that in the media it is probably just hot air.

5. One shocker I saw. Only 10% of insiders playing the game thought that the FCC would reclassify internet access under Title II of the Telecom Act. That’s the new Obama Net Neutrality position. I thought that was a little low.

Here is a link to the site. Check it out for fun. Or, if you are feeling up to it, set up an account and test your hand. This political marketplace is mostly made up of insiders so best of luck not loosing any money.

Bill McClellan's blog
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